Prediction is a Fallacy - Big Data is as big a problem as it is a help - Not able to judge exact overvaluation or undervaluation of market has nothing to do with your ability to position portfolio for the uncertainty
"In the era of big data, one would presume that we are getting better at making predictions. But according to Nate, huge quantum of data is as much a problem as a solution. More data does not always result in better predictive abilities as much of the information could be just noise which distracts us from the truth. Besides, more data could lead to us forming spurious correlations, while falsely raising confidence instead of being cautious about overfitting and uncertainty. Blindly trusting models and creating huge leverage was one of the reasons that led to the global financial crisis in 2008; “some predictions may not fail as often as simpler ones, but when they fail, they fail badly,” writes Nate."